Guaidó 1; regime 0; foreign press out.

And thus Juan Guaidó returned to Venezuela. Through the normal entry point in Maiquetia airport.  He went in a triumphant caravan all the way to Caracas to attend a rally. That caravan and rally were immense. And more succesful than whatever show the regime had attempted to put up previous days to make us believe that carnival holiday was joyful, reflecting a happy and content nation.

In short it was a major defeat for chavismo that had to bow to international pressure, and to a popular will favoring Guaido for which denial is now useless.  True, several ambassadors were waiting for Guaidó in Maiquetia to shepherd him to Caracas. But had the regime wanted to arrest Guaidó it would have done so at customs, away from public glare, packing Guaidó in a helicopter to wherever.

The fact of the matter is that the regime caved in, at least for now.  Contrary to what  many said, that the February 23 battle of Cucuta showed the resilience of Maduro, that battle was lost by the regime. Guaidó is the one imposing the agenda. His scene on the highway to Caracas when his caravan stopped in front of public housing to let Guaidó climbing on a car and wave the flag in front of a delirious crowd had a taste of the nails being planted on the regime's coffin.

One of the amazing things for me following this from afar was how the press began slowly to bury Guaidó because he was unable to force the entry of the humanitarian aid.  Was he? Nobody serious in Venezuela expected the aid to enter.  We all knew that it was a show of strength, that the objective was elsewhere. How could so many papers, from the NYT down be so gullible as to write up for some that Maduro was resilient, that the opposition was on its way to yet another big disappointment and what nonsense.

True, that battle to unseat the regime is far from won, but I am almost willing to find it somewhat suspicious for some US papers to be hinting to a premature Guaidó burial least Trump would be seen as scoring a point. I see this ship sailed.

Now you can read many of them on Twitter tonight talking of a "pendulum" or some other flimsy explanation.  Can't wait for the brainy exculpatory articles tomorrow.

Since January 5 the opposition has had a strategy that it has remarkably followed.  Guaidó was the one who decided to bite the bullet and take all risks.

For whatever reason they all went along. For whatever reason it has worked out so far.  He is collecting all the glory, but he is maybe a minute away from a bullet.  All par for the course.

The ill perceived failure of February 23 was not so. Guaidó was doing EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, rounding up support for the next  move, taking advantage of the true vileness the regime was willing to display at Cucuta.  Contrary to what many thought, expected, hoped for, Guaidó was not looking for a cozy exile spot, he was preparing his next moves, the one today being only the first one.

Becoming a failed state (2): the people

Excruciating cattle line for a white plastic rectangle

Last week end the regime was organization a census of sorts for people to sign up for “carnet de la patria”. The operation was on many Bolivar Squares of cities and villages, which are 90% of the time in areas of lower income status. That is, on Eastern Caracas, to give you an example, one would not see those lines. The objective is to codify under a single object all the now defunct social Misiones of Chavez. Defunct because there is no money and/or, they failed. But did the people signing up for the latest avatar knew what they were signing up for?


I was listening to an interview made to several people in the lines. One thought that it was some kind of census and people were required to sign up regardless. Another one did not know either but had heard that it would bring some material advantages “beneficios” so he had to sign up just in case. There was the one that wondered whether it was a new social program. Not forgetting the naïve one stating that the new card would stop abuse and corruption. Etc… Nobody knew exactly what the thing was about. All had an interpretation according to their need or wishes. And there had to be of course the chavista to the bone that said that this was the very last line that el pueblo had to stand in for, that thanks to the revolution and Maduro this was the final solution to all our woes. Or something of the kind, I am trying very hard to forget that after 17 there are still people like that.

And they shall go to jail

I am not sure if people outside Venezuela truly measure how miserable it is to live here. However one thing is certain, the political situation makes it impossible for things to improve any time soon. Even more certain are the odds of things getting worse. The photo below is National Assembly chair Ramos Allup showing on TV the picture of the defense minister Padrino Lopez in bowed deference to Fidel. This is the clearest sign that the confrontation with the regime is reaching pitch fork level.

Why is this picture, which has widely circulated in the web months ago, back in front?

Back to the XIX century

Regular readers may remember that often I wrote that chavismo was a mere reactionary movement, harking back to an ideal time of macho caudillos and independence wars. That violence and poverty ruled over Venezuela from 1805 until Gomez established the first stable regime of our history is apparently not an historical fact that chavistas can be bothered with: all that is wrong in Venezuela comes exclusively from the 1958-98 period and the evil empire up North.

Well, chavismo should be delighted because we are getting back to these halcyon days of robber barons (cheap ones, not rich ones as in the US) and grinding poverty. Four items to frighten you.

The inevitable confrontation: let's begin by unseating a few representatives

As I have been writing through December in any possible way that I could come up with, the confrontation between the regime and the opposition new National Assembly is inevitable. And started in all earnest today. By demanding that almost a dozen MUD representative election is to be questioned, the regime has deprived the new majority of its supernumerary majority of 2/3 which would have allowed it to change some of the worst and more repressive and manipulative laws approved under Chavez. Namely the laws that ensure the regime's near dictatorial nature such as freedom of expression and control of the judiciary by the regime (absolute, 100% control by the way as nobody remembers the last time the regime lost a case in the high court TSJ).

True, the Assembly still preserves the 3/5 super-majority that it needs to control fiscal aspects of the regime, but the ones that matter, the ones that can bring back democracy to Venezuela, are, for the time being, lost.  Let's look at some details.

The Venezuelan Narco State is getting an international definition

The Wall Street Journal published yesterday the first comprehensive account on the multiple investigations in the USA on Venezuela's drug traffic links, and possible long term consequences of those. In Spanish here for free for those who do not have subscription in English. Short English Reuters note here. (1)

National Assembly President,
soon on the "most wanted list"?

Of course there is nothing new here for those who have been following closely Venezuela here. Already ABC in Spain has run into trouble for accusing Diosdado Cabello to be the head of the main drug cartel of Venezuela. What is noteworthy in the WSJ work of Cordoba and Forero is the compilation nature of the thing, of not unnecessarily stressing the role of Cabello. The implications are frightening: the tentacles of drug trafficking that Chavez allowed go much, much deeper than what anyone may suspect, even today.

VN&V will not cover the coming legislative elections in Venezuela

Now that I may have gotten your attention, this is not entirely true. But what is true is that it is not worth my time covering elections which are a fraud on so many levels, from so many sides. And yet vote we must.

First, to make things clear, it is not that I am not up to task, 5 years ago my predictions went quite close to the mark, to two seats from the actual result.  The prediction gathered out of the regime gerrymandering huge advantage and assorted bonus was on the mark. We know the consequences of that vote.

But then I had material to work on. If previous electoral results were not reliable they still could be used to establish trends. If pollsters were weak and underfunded, and even questionable, they still could be used for trends. There were independent papers so you could sense the mood. Regional papers in particular were useful for those who were not Caracas navel gazers.  I even had some contacts.

All of this is gone.

Leopoldo Lopez versus Diosdado Cabello

Two major newspapers have published letters as OpEd from the two sides of the Venezuelan spectrum. I will let you judge by yourself comparing them. I also re-publish them integrally so you do not need to seek the the links.

A broke Venezuela splits its finances in two

To add more complexity to an already complicated situation Maduro went a big step ahead in creating a parallel administration for the country. That is, a parallel system for many activities of the state, a system that he can finance (if he has money) as he pleases, outside of any legislative control. Why is he doing that? Two reasons. Because he does not have enough money for all so he must find a "legal" way to give the money to only a few. Because he may be losing next year legislative election by a margin wide enough that no amount of electoral fraud will be able to disguise the fact (after all, we are in an elected dictatorship, are we not?)

To nail down the whole scheme he even dares making these new laws he decreed "organicas" which means that the laws can only be changed by a 2/3 vote in the national Assembly, something he trusts the opposition will not be able to reach. For those that still think Venezuela is a democracy (mercifully a dwindling small number) let me remind you that Maduro decrees these law through an "enabling law", Hitler style, that he got barely with a 3/5 majority (having expelled/blackmailed/bought enough opposition representatives on the flimsiest of charges to reach the magical number). And yet these laws can only be abrogated or modified by a 2/3 majority. 3/5 become 2/3. Explain to me where is representation and democracy in that....

Of planes and clouds, debacle and loyalty, outdated lefties and pragmatist delusions

It seems that suddenly things are speeding up.  On one side the government keeps proving that it cannot produce a single fresh, novel idea, on the other side rats are having trouble abandoning ship. But they are trying hard.

The morally uptight revolution

Long time readers of this blog will remember that I often wrote that on many aspects the bolivarian pseudo revolution is a mere look at the past, your basic reactionary movement. This week they reminded us again how morally uptight they also are, Victorian to the core but without the work ethic or basic honesty.

Are the Venezuelan protests yielding results?

On March 5 the government of Venezuela commemorated the first anniversary of the passing of Hugo Chavez with a military parade in Caracas attended by few international guests. On the other side of town and across the country protests entered their second month. Even the regular observer of Venezuelan politics is allowed to wonder what has changed that made this wave of protests so extended, so intensive.

And yet, Maduro is still in office, with shelves empty, at the grocery store or at the drug store. How come?

When all are rights there are no rights

The announcement of pet rights this month in Venezuela makes obvious that nobody has rights.

2013 in review: the year we learned we were bankrupt

I have never really quite indulged in "end of year reviews". But even if this blog is written to be read all through the year, 2013 has been momentous enough that for once it may be worth our time to rethink a little bit about some of the past events. Also, this time of year is when the blog gets least visitors for the year, and probably the hits come from the most hard core lot. I suppose it is a homage to you guys to write some short and to the point posts as to the salient events of the year about to end. We can comment those among ourselves.

Getting ready for 2014 (1): the baseline starting point, a tanking economy

So now that we have completed an election cycle, that the last election day of that cycle is just behind us, that there is no scheduled election until December 2015, it is time to start wondering what is in store next for us.  What is going to be the overriding factor next year, well, it is already, is the economy of Venezuela. Thus let's start describing briefly in which conditions Venezuela is finishing the year. The least and kindest we can say is that the situation is grim.

Venezuela voting in December 8 is much more than a mere election

Last weekend I wrote the only substantive post on the December election I will write. Besides a passing comment here and there (like chavista thugs burning down the stage in Maracay where Capriles was about to make a supporting speech for the local candidate or a MUD council candidate murdered in Zulia by hired guns), this is no time to indulge in a leisurely tour of Venezuelan local peculiarities that influence local outcomes like I did extensively in 2008 or 2010. There is no point even in looking at my now traditional Caucaguita tracking post which last installment may suggest that Ocariz could cross the 50% line.

A XXIst century dictatorship primer

Even though for informed people the Venezuelan regime has become a symbol of utter corruption, immeasurable incompetence, sublime contempt for the rule of law and plasticity for human rights, you read here and there that we are a democracy. We cannot possibly be a dictatorship because people are happy and keep reëlecting the same folks letting hysterics dominate Twitter. What these people fail to notice is that the concept of dictatorship has evolved with the times. Now, in the earlier part of the XXI century, in an age of mass media and massive social media, the tools of dictatorship have had to evolve, even if old means are yet to be out of fashion as we see in Egypt these days.

To understand that "adaptation of dictatorship to new realities" let's start by remembering what are the core concepts of democracy and, as a consequence, what trumps a democracy and can thus represent the basic tools to sustain a dictatorship.

The Post Chavez era of propaganda

Having an arepa at my occasional hangout in San Felipe I was forced to read Ultimas Noticias as the last "national" paper still available. And I fell on this so telling regime propaganda that I could not resist to take a picture of the full page advertisement and deconstruct here for your pleasure. Click to enlarge.

Let's start by the obvious: PDVSA, the state oil company is paying for that advertisement to glorify Chavez by attaching it tot he memory of Simon Bolivar, on the week of the anniversary.  Of course, if Chavez was born late July it could nto be possibly for any other reason but to his link to Bolivar. Take that you other Leo babies! At any rate, PDVSA breaks the law but who cares at this point....

Are the radicals winning the regime's infighting?

Chavismo has been torn apart, in secret, since Chavez death. The battle implies several factions, from rich corrupt bolibourgeois to radical idiotism pushing forward ideas that have always failed in history. It seems that the radical point of view may be getting the upper hand. That does not mean it is winning as some of the factions may have decided to cool it for a while and wait for better times. But in harsh economic climate and a legitimacy problem, they may all agree that a short stint in the radicalism parlance may do them some good. Some evidences.

The big inflation mystery: 6% or worse?

So, we are on June 5th and May inflation numbers are not out. It is not idle to remind the reader that when Chavez was alive sometimes, when convenient, the Central Bank was able to post inflation numbers for the month BEFORE that month was over....

Thus we need to read foreign outlets to know what is really going on. El Clarin reports on a Barclay's study that says that May inflation is 6%, the annual rate becoming thus 35,1% while the economic contraction may reach 9,7%.

Why? Because the regime through Mision Vivienda to reelect Chavez spent all its income and borrowed heavily and now it is out of dollars for production and the economy is collapsing. That simple.  The massive expenditures for a spectacular, and spectacularly inefficient, housing program has all but bankrupted the country and now we cannot even wipe our asses.

And you know what is really scary? The regime seems not to understand. Since they had to call for municipal elections in December, there are already signs of increasing spending for electoral purposes...  You may start speculating on next year inflation.....